Global pink salmon production is set to plummet by 50% by 2024, with expected impact on market price

Russia Forecasts Big Drop in Wild Salmon Catches After a bumper 2023 harvest, production in 2024 will return to traditional levels for pink salmon.
Russia expects wild salmon catches in the country's Far East to drop by nearly half in the upcoming season, which begins June 1, allowing the traditional two-year cycle of pink salmon production to return to normal levels.

Rosrybolovstvo, the federal fisheries agency, predicts that Russia's wild salmon catch will reach 320,000 tons in the upcoming season, which would be 47.4% less than the previous year.

Last year, Russia's Pacific wild salmon catch was 609,000 tons, which was the second largest catch on record.

Wild salmon is traditionally the second most heavily fished fishery in Russia, after cod. Nearly half of the country's wild salmon come from the Kamchatka region, a volcanic peninsula located between the Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific Ocean.Rosrybolovstvo forecasts a catch of 193,000 tons of pink salmon for the upcoming season. The catch of silver salmon is expected to be 88,000 tons, and the catch of sockeye salmon 27,600 tons.

Rosrybolovstvo Director Ilya Shestakov said that these forecasts may be adjusted based on an analysis of June salmon spawning and seasonal fishing. The overall wild salmon catch in Kamchatka is expected to reach 167,000 tons this season. In Sakhalin, the agency predicts a catch of 90,000 tons, while in the Khabarovsk region, the catch is forecast at 52,000 tons. Smaller catches are expected in Magadan, Chukotka and Primorsky Krai in eastern Russia.

Meanwhile, salmon production within the state of Alaska is also expected to decrease significantly in 2024, according to a report released by the U.S. Alaska Department of Fish and Wildlife Management (ADF&G). The commercial harvest of all salmon species in Alaska is projected to be 135.7 million fish this year, a 41% decrease from last year's total. The forecast indicates that commercial harvest of sockeye salmon will be lower this year, with a projected commercial catch of 39.5 million fish, a 23% decrease from last year.

ADF&G forecasts the total sockeye salmon catch in Bristol Bay in 2024 to be 26 million fish, down 35% from the 2023 catch of more than 40 million fish.

The total catch of all salmon in Alaska in 2023 is about 232.4 million fish, more than half of which are pink salmon. Pink salmon migrate in high numbers every other year, so catches often fluctuate dramatically.

The U.S. commercial catch of pink salmon in 2024 is projected to be 69 million fish, less than half of last year's 15.49 million fish, and this year's catch forecast is similar to the 2022 catch of 69.1 million fish.

These data suggest that global pink salmon production will decline significantly in 2024, with both Russia and the U.S. state of Alaska facing the challenge of significantly reduced pink salmon production, which will have a significant impact on market supply and prices.